Wimbledon Championships 2022: Which day is rain most likely?

Even if you are watching the action under the retractable roofs on Centre Court or No. 1 Court, rain can still dampen your spirits.

If you are planning your trip to the Tournament, is there anything you can do to choose a day with the lowest probability of rain?

What are the dates of the 2022 Championships?

The Wimbledon Tournament dates very slightly from year to year, but the start date is usually the Monday that falls closest to 1 July. This means that the 14-day tournament could start in late June or early July.

For 2022, the Tournament will run from Monday, 27 June 2022 to Sunday, 10 July 2022. For the first time, the Tournament will be played on the ‘middle Sunday’, which falls on Sunday, 3 July 2022.

See also: Complete breakdown of the 2022 Championship schedule.

Which courts have retractable roofs?

Centre Court and No. 1 Court both have retractable roofs. If it rains, play will usually continue on these two main show courts.

Play will typically be halted due to rain on Wimbledon’s outdoor courts and will resume when the umpires decide that the conditions are suitable.

Probability of rainfall

It is estimated that weather forecasting has improved to the point where the 4 day forecast is now as accurate as the 1 one day forecast was 30 years ago.

According to meteorologists, however, predicting rainfall is particularly difficult as showers can be very localised.

Unless you are looking for tickets a day or two in advance, the forecast won’t be much help if you are looking for a guaranteed rain free day.

To try and establish whether the historical records offers any insights, we looked at the rainfall data over the past 10 years as follows:

Date Average Rainfall (mm)
23-June 3.07
24-June 1.25
25-June 1.23
26-June 0.29
27-June 3.32
28-June 3.30
29-June 0.42
30-June 0.14
01-July 0.16
02-July 0.89
03-July 0.50
04-July 1.68
05-July 1.32
06-July 1.61
07-July 1.28
08-July 3.22
09-July 0.37
10-July 0.61
11-July 3.76
12-July 7.23
13-July 3.05
14-July 1.09
15-July 0.22
16-July 1.48
17-July 0.30
18-July 2.15
19-July 1.68
20-July 2.05
21-July 0.69

When plotted, the significant variation in the average amount of daily rainfall over the Tournament is immediately apparent:

Average Wimbledon Rainfall

Conclusion

It is of course impossible to extrapolate historical weather data to indicate future weather. That said there, are seasonal trends.

London has 106 days of rainfall per year (in excess of 1mm per day) on average. Even before you seasonally adjust this statistic for the Summer, you would have a 70% chance of fair weather at the Tournament.

According to the historical data, the two days between 2011 and 2021 with the lowest rainfall were 30 June (0.14mm) and 1 July (0.16mm). Both days are typically around the first day of the Tournament.

The day with the third lowest rainfall was 15 July (0.22mm) – typically around the day of the finals.

The day with the highest average (7.23mm) rainfall was 12 July.

See also: What happens when it rains at the Wimbledon Championships?